Why Grocery Shoppers are Leaving Stores to Buy Their Food Online

Don't like doing your grocery shopping at the grocery store? You're not alone. According to a new report from Bricks Meets Clicks, online grocery shopping will grow 4.5% between now and 2028, three times the growth rate for in-store shopping, which is forecasted to grow 1.3% during the same period.

The report reveals that grocery e-commerce sales - defined as encompassing delivery, pickup, and ship-to-home services—will reach nearly $120 billion annually by the end of 2028, accounting for 12.7% of total U.S. grocery sales. Additionally, online grocery sales, excluding ship-to-home orders will make up 10.7% of total grocery sales within five years. Ship-to-home, which uses carriers like FedEx and UPS, is a service most grocers don’t offer.

“Two factors are creating significant headwinds that impact our eGrocery forecast,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “First, the market is maturing. Nearly all of the people interested in online grocery shopping have used it at least once by now. Second, even though inflation has recently fallen faster than expected, its cumulative effect continues to drive a flight-to-value behavior in grocery shopping and that will slow topline sales growth.”

Bricks Meets Click projects that pickup sales will outpace delivery (5.4% vs. 4.4%) and ship-to-home (2.8%) over the next five years. Pickup services are anticipated to seize a commanding 47% share of all online grocery sales by the end of 2028. This surge in pickup options mirrors a calculated expansion by retailers, particularly in suburban markets, where delivery services currently reign supreme. This strategic shift aligns with a growing consumer appetite for convenience, driving retailers to extend their geographical footprint to meet these demands.

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