Driver Turnover

The boom-and-bust market dynamics of the trucking industry can have the feel of a Greek tragedy—everyone can see the inevitable ending, but no one is free to take a different path that avoids the fall. Worse yet, the end restarts the cycle.

Pay for American truckers rose significantly in 2021 as demand for drivers amid the ongoing driver shortage increased competition for talent. That’s according to the results of a new industry survey commissioned by the American Trucking Associations (ATA). ATA estimated there is a shortage of 80,000 drivers among the 3 million holders of a Commercial Driver’s License.

A provision in the new $1.2 trillion infrastructure law contains an apprentice program that would allow 3,000 or so under-21 truck drivers to be employed in interstate commerce. But trucking officials and executives say that is hardly enough to make a dent in the nationwide truck driver shortage. American Trucking Associations (ATA) estimated recently that the nation is 80,000 short of full employment in truck drivers—a shortage ATA predicts could hit 150,000 if conditions don’t change by 2030.

The decades-old truck driver shortage, now estimated at 80,000, is bad and getting worse because of the nationwide service worker shortage, early retirements, the global pandemic and other acute economic factors. That is up from 61,000 just three years ago, in 2018.

The decades-old truck driver shortage, now estimated at 80,000, is bad and getting worse because of the nationwide service worker shortage, early retirements, the global pandemic and other acute economic factors. That is up from 61,000 just three years ago, in 2018.

ATA officials said that the turnover rate for truckload carriers with more than $30 million in annual revenue remained at 92%, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, following a 10% annual gain in the third quarter. And the turnover rate for smaller carriers, with revenue below $30 million, saw a 2% decline, to 72%.

ATA officials said that the turnover rate for truckload carriers with more than $30 million in annual revenue headed up 10% to 92% on an annualized basis, while the turnover rate for smaller truckload carriers saw a 14% increase to 74%. Even with these gains, ATA observed that that average turnover rate for 2020 is lagging 2019. And less-than-truckload (LTL) saw the annualized turnover rate increase 2%, to 14%.

ATA reported that the truckload carrier turnover rate, for carriers with more than $30 million in annual revenue, decreased 12%, to 82%, which represents the lowest level going back to the end of 2018. And it added that the turnover rate, for smaller truckload carriers, was off 10%, to 60%, marking its lowest quarterly level going back to the fourth quarter of 2011. On the less-than-truckload (LTL) side, the second quarter annualized turnover rate was flat, at 12%.

Annualized turnover rate for large and small truckload carriers was up in the third quarter.

While it is true that 2018 marked what could be described as a boom year for the freight economy, a new report issued this week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) revealed that the trucking sector needed 60,800 more for-hire over-the-road truckload drivers at the end of the year to meet the nation’s freight services demands.

The first quarter turnover rate for large fleets with more than $30 million in revenue increased 5% to 83%, which was lower than the 2018 average rate of 89% and down 11% compared to the first quarter of 2018. For small fleets, the ATA said the turnover rate fell 4% to 73%, from the first quarter to the second quarter.

A recent report issued by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) questions if the driver shortage is as bad as it purported to be within industry circles.

The fourth quarter turnover rate for large fleets-with more than $30 million in revenue-dropped 9% to 78%, and was down 10% compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. For all of 2018, the large fleet driver turnover rate was 89%, marking a 2% annual gain over 2017. For small fleets, the ATA said the turnover rate was up 5% to 775, which was down 3% annually, with the full-year 2018 turnover rate at 73%, representing the lowest rate for small carrier driver churn going back to 2011.

While driver turnover and the ongoing driver shortage tend to go hand in hand and, more often than not, with a typically negative connotation, data issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) is on the positive side.

A pilot program that would allow teenagers to drive an 80,000-pound truck in interstate commerce is one of the worst ideas to solve the driver shortage, a top trucking executive with six decades experience in the industry says.