Key assumptions
- Economy continues to grow at current (anemic) pace despite sequester/etc. – no “spring swoon”.
- Federal government does no further damage (default, debt limit)
- No externalities (i.e. North Korea, Iran, Euro Zone meltdown, and so on)
- No court delay to HOS revision
Short-term implications
At a minimum:
– Tightening capacity, increasing rates
– Shift in balance of power between shipper and carrier
– Greater focus on driver productivity at shipper facilities
If economy is better than expected:
– True capacity shortage – freight doesn’t get moved
– Truck size & weight in play
Longer-term implications
- The end of the “driver shortage”?
- Fundamental change in driver pay/carrier costs
- Big changes at the loading dock
- Increased inventory levels
- Higher costs for surge capacity
- True collaboration between shippers and carriers