U.S.-bound shipments see growth in October, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

United States-bound containerized freight imports saw growth in October, for the second straight month, following a 13-month stretch of annual declines, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

October imports, at 2.64 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), increased 5% annually, following a 1% annual gain in September. On a year-to-date basis through October, imports are down 11.5%, to 24.02 million TEU.  

S&P Global Market Intelligence said that consumer discretionary goods, excluding autos, and capital goods shipments increased 8%, with consumer goods flat, and information tech down 6% (falling for the 11^th consecutive month). And it added that the seasonality of shipments in consumer discretionary goods appears to have returned to normality, with a steady run-up through October.

Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an interview that October’s numbers were within expectations, noting that import numbers were worse earlier in the year.

“The fact that October shipments were up 5% is a little bit surprising on the positive side,” he said. “Over the rest of the year and into the first quarter are expecting kind of anemic growth, in the 3%-to-4% territory, so 5% was nice to see.”

He attributed the majority of October’s gains to capital goods imports, as well as what he called a big rebound in a few consumer sectors, specifically appliances and leisure products, including toys.

What’s more, he added that this period was essentially lapping a bad period at that same time a year ago, when major inventory destocking efforts were getting underway.

“When you look at the seasonal patterns, if anything, things look to be getting back to normal somewhat,” said Rogers. “October was up 4% over September. Looking at the previous five years, excluding 2022, you are normally looking at a 5%-to-6% sequential growth rate. It is a little bit of a smaller uptick month-over-month but only by a tiny bit.

Looking at the remainder of 2023, Rogers said he expects a “little bit” of annual growth, albeit not at the same level as October, likely in the low single-digits.

“The main thing to determine there is if companies have been shipping a little bit earlier than last year,” he said. “For Halloween products, there were earlier shipping patterns in the highly-seasonal areas. But we would not necessarily be expecting a boom in the last couple months of the year.”