Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders see sequential and annual declines

Preliminary North American Class 8 net trucking orders, for the month of April, saw declines, according to recent data respectively issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.  

FTR reported that April preliminary net orders—at 12,050 units—were down 37% compared to March and down 20% annually, with net orders falling for the sixth time in the last seven months through April. For the 12-month period through April, total Class 8 orders are at 298,500.

FTR explained that the weak order level in April was not viewed as a surprise, although it is happening earlier in the year than typically expected. And it added that the slowdown in orders is not a direct indication of the level of demand but rather is because build slots are filled for 2023, also noting that reduced order levels will continue through the seasonally weak summer order period.

“When 2024 order boards open later this year, we anticipate some modest additional strength in order activity,” said Eric Starks, FTR chairman of the board, in a statement. “There still are indications that fleets are requesting equipment, and there has been no notable uptick in cancellations. Once we see the full data mid-month, we will have a better grasp on any changes in cancellation behavior. With build strong over the last several months, backlogs will have come down during April. The incoming order rate for March was 145,000 annualized, which is on par with the weak order levels during the summer of 2022. Despite the weakness, we do not anticipate much, if any, negative impact on production levels over the next few quarters.”

ACT data: ACT reported that preliminary North American Class 8 April orders—at 11,600 units—fell 39% compared to March and were off 27% annually.  

“Given robust Class 8 orders into year end, ensuing backlog support, and normal seasonal order patterns, orders were expected to moderate into Q2; we expected SA orders in a range of 15-20k units per month into mid-Q3’23,” said Eric Crawford, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “Coupling those items with increasingly cautious readings from the ACT Class 8 Dashboard, April orders were weaker than expected on a standalone basis but bring the ytd monthly SA average to 17,500, squarely in line with our view. The recent turmoil in the banking sector likely tightened credit conditions for some industry participants and may have played a factor in exacerbating April’s weakness. Thus, while we expect orders to remain at subdued levels into mid-Q3’23, we are not inclined to think April’s order activity represents the likely run rate going forward.”