Driver Shortage

New ATA report shows growing shortage of qualified truck drivers - analysis shows driver shortage of 48,000 now, possibly 175,000 by 2024.

At a certain point, it seems like the ongoing truck driver shortage cannot get any worse, right? Well, think again, because of myriad reasons we could well be in the very early innings of a game that is, and continues, to be hard to watch. That was made clear in a report issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA), entitled “Truck Driver Analysis 2015.”

The long-running truck driver shortage is getting worse and is limiting carriers’ expansion plans at a time when economic growth is beginning to constrain surface transportation capacity. Finding and retaining enough complaint truck drivers “is the biggest single challenge for us as an industry,” a top trucking industry executive says.

The era of driverless trucks – or autonomous vehicles, as they are known euphemistically – may be a lot closer to reality than many people think.

The era of driverless trucks – or autonomous vehicles, as they are known euphemistically – may be a lot closer to reality than many people think.

With a combination of retirements and people exiting the industry, carriers need to recruit in roughly 100,000 drivers per year over the next decade to simply keep pace with projected United States freight needs.

The ATA reported that the annualized turnover rate for large truckload carriers in the fourth quarter dropped 1 percent to 96 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, with turnover for small truckloads carriers, which the ATA defines as those with less than $30 million in annual revenue, headed up 1 percent to 95 percent.

The annualized turnover rate for large truckload carriers in the third quarter rose one percentage point to 97 percent, according to the ATA.

The truck driver shortage is worsening, threatening the trucking industry’s ability to serve the nation’s supply chains. The shortage will almost certainly cause fleets’ costs to increase and shippers’ rate to continue to rise.

Not only is the truck driver shortage ostensibly a problem that won’t go away, the situation appears to have become exacerbated compared to previous sentiments in recent years. Given that this dilemma is far from new, there are also more related problems, at least on the surface, when it comes to assessing just what needs to be done to remedy things.

When publicly-traded Class I freight railroad and intermodal service providers issued second quarter earnings results earlier this summer, the topic of less than ideal service on the rails was a common theme within the earnings releases and question and answer sessions with top management at those companies.

In recent weeks, many well-known carriers, including Swift Transportation, Con-way Truckload and US Xpress are making a full-on press regarding increasing driver wages in an effort to secure more capacity and keep their wheels moving, as well as to prevent driver turnover at a time when it is becoming more difficult to recruit and retain drivers.

To be sure the ongoing truck driver shortage is crimping overall freight transportation production, and based on data issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) that situation is unlikely to change in a meaningful way anytime soon.

While there was a bit of a decrease, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported today that the turnover rate at large truckload carriers for the fourth quarter of 2013 came in at 91 percent.

At the recent 2014 Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference, and the Food Shippers Annual Transportation Conference, I had some great discussions with industry experts. They highlighted three reasons carrier rates will rise in 2014.