Various economic factors are having an impact on projected import volumes, notes Port Tracker

Following a recent forecast, in which it said United States-bound retail container import volumes appeared to be trending in the right direction over the remainder of 2023, the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, said that may now no longer be the case.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Cargo volumes will still be strong the rest of the year, but not as high as we expected a month ago,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “Retailers stocked up early this year as a safeguard against supply chain labor issues and are well-situated to meet consumer demand. Shoppers are spending more than they did last year, but the rate of growth we’ve seen the past couple of years has slowed and retailers are working to strike the right balance of supply and demand.”

For August, the most recent month for which data is available, Port Tracker reported that import volume, for the ports covered in the report, came in at 1.96 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), which is up 2.3% over July, and down 13.5% annually, marking the highest monthly volume on a year-to-date basis, while falling short of a projected 2 million TEU, for the month, in the report’s previous edition.   

Port Tracker issued projections for September and the subsequent months, including:

• September, at 1.94 million TEU, for an 4.3% annual decrease;
• October, at 1.94 million TEU, for a 3.1% annual decrease;
• November, at 1.91 million TEU, for a 7.5% annual increase and would represent the first annual gain since June 2022;
• December, at 1.88 million TEU, for an 8.9% annual increase;
• January, at 1.88 million TEU, for a 4.2% annual increase; and
• February, which is typically the slowest month of the year, due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, is pegged at 1.74 million TEU, for a 12.7% annual increase

Should these projections come to fruition, the report said that total U.S. container import volume would come in at 22.1 million TEU, for a 13.5% annual decrease, compared to 2022’s 25.5 million TEU. The 2022 total was off 1.2% compared to the all-time record set in 2021, at 25.8 million TEU. These tallies came with the caveat that Canada’s Vancouver and Prince Rupert aren’t included in those totals and not all of their cargo comes to the United States.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that despite some positive economic signs, including inflation coming down, the unemployment rate and GDP holding mostly steady, should serve as an indication the economy has survived the pandemic and inflation without a recession. But, at the same time, he explained myriad economic concerns remain, including fairly weak consumer sentiment, regarding whether inflation is falling and if government policies are working. What’s more, he added that interest rates remain an issue, with short-term rates at a 15-year high, serving as a strong signal that mortgages will see further increases and subsequently place pressure on things like the housing market, investments, and still-high gas and grocery prices directly impacting consumers’ discretionary spending—all of which he said will further reduce import levels.

“We are already seeing this in the operational decisions carriers are making,” Hackett wrote. “They have slowed down their ships in an attempt to cut capacity without having to take vessels out of service as new, larger ones ordered when demand was higher are delivered. Even so, ships are not sailing fully loaded, and freight rates are declining as a result. That’s a further indication that no cargo growth from current levels is expected on the near-term horizon. Perhaps 2024 will be better.”