September truck tonnage levels are solid, reports American Trucking Associations

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported today that truck tonnage readings, for the month of September, were strong.

The ATA’s advanced Seasonally Adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for September—at 112.9 (2015=100)—headed up 2.4%, following a 0.3% August increase (downwardly revised from an original reading of 0.5%). On a year-to-date basis through September, SA tonnage is flat. ATA said that this index is comprised mainly of contract freight rather than spot market freight.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, for September, was 113.2 (2015=100), trailing August by 1%

“September’s [advanced SA] sequential gain was the largest in 2021,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “It is good that tonnage rose in September, but it is important to note that this is happening because each truck is hauling more, not from an increase in the amount of equipment operated as contract carriers in the for-hire truckload market continue to shrink from the lack of new trucks and drivers. The drivers of truck freight, including retail, construction, and manufacturing, plus a surge in imports, are helping keep demand high for trucking services.”

Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for freight consultancy FTR, recently told LM that market conditions are likely at or near the peak of their favorability for truckload carriers, but the slope on the downside of that peak is uncertain.

“The pandemic has created unprecedented situations on both the demand and capacity sides of the ledger, and the range of plausible outcomes remains quite broad,” he said. “Enormous levels of stimulus from Washington…fueled a buying spree the likes of which we have never seen, especially in durable goods. One scenario is that spending on goods crashes in 2022 or 2023, especially if inflation continues. However, while growth in freight demand almost certainly has peaked, unprecedented levels of consumer savings and debt retirement could maintain a solid floor on freight volume. Pandemic-related constraints on driver capacity might make it harder than usual to bring demand and capacity into balance, but nobody truly knows how many drivers have left the market permanently.”