Rising demand for truckload capacity and high average spot rates remain intact, says DAT

The ongoing themes of rising demand for truckload capacity and high average spot rates remained intact, for the week ending September 27, according to data issued this week by DAT Freight & Analytics, online marketplace for spot market truckload freight. 

Rates based on rolling averages, through September 27, came in at: $2.37 per mile for van, unchanged on a weekly basis (and is up 14 cents compared to the national contract rate); flatbed rose 1 cent, to $2.40 per mile; and refrigerated was unchanged, at $2.57 per mile.

DAT explained that spot rates remain elevated, whereas the pace of price increases over the past five months has seen a slight decline in recent weeks.

And it also observed that shippers have been moving freight over to the spot market, citing data from DAT’s Freight Market Intelligence Consortium (FMIC) showing that 80% more freight moved on the spot market in August annually, while overall freight volumes were down slightly. The FMIC data is based on more than $50 billion in actual annual freight transactions supplied by FMIC members, which include major retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, third-party logistics firms, and other organizations, according to DAT.

The national average van load-to-truck ratio—at 5.3—was flat compared to the week ending September 20 and equivalent to August, which represents the all-time high for this time of year, according to DAT.

The national average refrigerated rate—at $2.57 per mile—hit its highest level for September over the past five years, with DAT saying that the number of lanes with higher average rates compared to lower average rates being even. And it added that reefer spot rates often fall at this time of year, when fresh produce volumes tend to decline.

In the most recent edition of DAT’s Truckload Volume Index, the company observed that spot van rates have been on what it called a “rollercoaster ride” throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

“Typically, freight rates begin the year on a predictably downward slope and then rise to a peak in June and July,” the firm said. “But in 2020, by the end of March, spot van rates had jumped 15 cents per mile year over year only to drop 15 cents per mile below 2019 levels by May 1, a 30-cents-per-mile swing in just four weeks,” it said. “Since then rates have increased 62 cents per mile in just five months in what’s regarded as the longest continuous rate rally in the last five years.”

In a recent interview, Ken Adamo, Chief of Analytics at DAT, told LM that when comparing the current state of spot market rates and volumes, from early May when truckers were protesting in front of the White House, with rates hovering around $1.20-to-$1.30 per mile nationally (excluding fuel), to now, there has been what he called a pure linear run to historic five-to-ten year historic highs on the spot market for dry van.  And he added that it is probably a little bit lower on the reefer side, due to seasonal components, and that many restaurants across the country are not operating at full capacity, coupled with the lack of food service demand at schools, universities, and sporting events, among others.    

“But on the flatbed side, we are seeing continued growth, largely due to favorable home building conditions and home deliveries related to that, including roll-on roll-off cargo, at some of the Eastern ports,” he said. “It is really just bullish all around from a spot rate perspective. We are starting to see that bleed into contract rates as well. Spot rates are definitely above contract rates right now, to the extent that things were during the peak in 2018. We are seeing contract rates pick up a tiny bit, which I think is due to two primary factors. One is routing guide slippage. Carriers are lower in the routing guide for a reason, which is because they are priced higher, and if you tap into those carriers you have to pay more. Another factor is shippers offering voluntarily to pay higher prices to ensure their contract carriers are going to meet their commitments.”