Port Tracker points to a later peak amid growing volume patterns

As indicated in its previous edition, United States-bound retail container volumes are expected to continue to slow down, in tandem with the remaining weeks of 2023, according to the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was issued this week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“We originally thought peak season would come in August but imports kept growing in September and again in October,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that’s a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season. NRF expects record-setting holiday sales this year and retailers are well-stocked to meet consumer demand.”

In early November, NRF issued its holiday sales projections. NRF defines holiday sales as sales occurring between November 1 and December 31, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, to focus on core retail. As was the case a year ago, NRF’s holiday sales forecast numbers are optimistic and positive, with 2023 holiday season retail sales pegged to be up 3%-to-4% annually, coming in between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.

For October, the most recent month for which data is available, Port Tracker reported that import volume, for the ports covered in the report, came in at 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), marking a 1.3% gain over September and a 2.5% annual increase, marking the first annual increase going back to June 2022. Along with September’s 2.03 million TEU tally, this represents the second month that time imports have eclipsed the 2 million TEU mark going back to October 2022.

What’s more, the report explained that October is likely to end up as the peak month of the holiday shipping season, although August’s 1.96 million TEU was initially expected to be the peak month. And it added that October had historically been the peak month, it has instead been in August or sooner for seven of the past 10 years, following a series of labor disputes, which drove retailers to bring in merchandise sooner to avoid holiday disruptions, noting that the last time October was the peak shipping month was in 2020.

Port Tracker issued projections for November and the subsequent months, including:

• November, at 1.96 million TEU, for a 10.5% annual decrease
• December, at 1.93 million TEU, for an 11.5% annual increase;
• January, at 1.93 million TEU, for a 6.6% annual increase;
• February, which is typically the slowest month of the year, due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia at 1.77 million TEU, for a 14.5% annual increase;
• March, at 1.75 million TEU, for a 7.7% annual increase; and
• April, at 1.8 million TEU, for a 1% annual increase

Should the November and December numbers match estimates, 2023 would come in at 22.4 million TEU, for a 12.4% annual increase. Total 2022 imports came in at 25.5 million TEU, which was off 1.2% annually compared to 2021’s all-time high of 25.8 million TEU.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the U.S. economy appears to be on a sustainable growth path as consumer demand remains buoyant following solid Black Friday sales figures.

“Corporate profits are strong and real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 5.2% in the third quarter,” he wrote. “It would be natural to assume that any thought of a recession is behind us, but a significant number of economists and politicians remain skeptical. As always, time will tell.”