June truck tonnage is mixed, says ATA

June truck tonnage volumes were mixed, according to data issued today by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA’s advanced seasonally-adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for June, at 115.2 (2015=100) fell 1.1% in June after a 4% May decline (upwardly revised from a -6.1% reading). And compared to June 2018, SA tonnage was up 1.5%.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, was 117.6 in June (2015=100), trailing May’s 119.1 and trailing April’s 117.4.  

“Tonnage continues to show resilience as it posted the twenty-sixth year-over-year increase despite falling for the second straight month sequentially,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “The year-over-year gain was the smallest over the past two years, but the level of freight remains quite high. Tonnage is outperforming other trucking metrics as heavy freight sectors, like tank truck, are witnessing better freight levels than sectors like dry van, which has a lower average weight per load.” 

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, came in at 117.6 in June, trailing May’s 121.7 by 3.3%

Looking at the state of the freight economy at the RILA Link 2019 Supply Chain Conference earlier this year, Costello said that people would need to set their expectations differently for 2019 when compared to a very good 2018, in that the economy will grow, albeit at a slower rate.

While GDP may not meet 2018’s strong robust levels, Costello made it clear that key economic fundamentals remain firmly intact.

These fundamentals include things like still strong consumer activity, as well as a solid job market.

Addressing the latter, he said that there are currently more job openings than there are unemployed people, which “does not usually happen.” What’s more, he raised the question of what happens when full employment is reached, as it relates to wages. And the short answer was that wages go up, which obviously continues to support economic growth and freight activity.