July truck tonnage sees solid results

July truck tonnage volumes were solid, according to data issued late last week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA’s advanced seasonally-adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for July, at 122.7 (2015=100), saw a 6.6% annual gain, on the heels of a 1.2% June decline, which came in at 115.1. And on an annual basis, July SA tonnage rose 7.3%, for its largest annual gain going back to April.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, hit 122.8 (2015=100) in July, which represented a 4.5% gain over June’s 117.5.

“Tonnage in 2019 has been on a rollercoaster ride, plagued with large monthly swings, which continued in July as tonnage surged after falling significantly in May and June,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “However, take out the month-to-month noise, and you see that truck tonnage is still on a nice upward path. It is important to note that ATA’s tonnage data is dominated by contract freight, which is performing significantly better than the plunge in spot market freight this year.” 

Looking at the state of the freight economy at the RILA Link 2019 Supply Chain Conference earlier this year, Costello said that people would need to set their expectations differently for 2019 when compared to a very good 2018, in that the economy will grow, albeit at a slower rate.

While GDP may not meet 2018’s strong robust levels, Costello made it clear that key economic fundamentals remain firmly intact.These fundamentals include things like still strong consumer activity, as well as a solid job market.

Addressing the latter, he said that there are currently more job openings than there are unemployed people, which “does not usually happen.” What’s more, he raised the question of what happens when full employment is reached, as it relates to wages. And the short answer was that wages go up, which obviously continues to support economic growth and freight activity.