FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index shows modest improvement while long-term issues remain intact

The new edition of the Trucking Conditions Index, which was issued this week by freight transportation consultancy FTR, again saw a slight improvement while remaining in negative territory.

According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.

For April, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI eked out a two-point increase, to -3.88, faring better than March’s -5.83, which came on the heels of February’s -5.17 reading. This was preceded by January’s -1.71 reading, which came on the heels of December’s -6.1 and November’s -7.94. That was preceded by October’s -11.25, its lowest level since the April 2020 all-time low, at -28.66. The September TCI reading came in at -2.35.

FTR said April’s improvement was due to stronger freight volume and a somewhat less negative environment for financing costs. And it added that weaker capacity utilization and a deceleration in fuel cost decreases partially offset those improvements. Looking ahead to the coming months, FTR said it expects negative TCI readings to remain intact through the middle of 2024.

“Our estimates and forecasts still show the truck freight market at close to its bottom, but the outlook remains quite weak,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, in a statement. “For example, we see almost no improvement in capacity utilization into 2024, which would keep freight rates soft. Some upside potential exists for better market conditions, including a stronger automotive sector and a deeper loss of driver capacity than we are forecasting currently, but trucking companies should not count on those developments. Freight demand might remain just strong enough to limit the number of drivers exiting the market, thereby keeping utilization weak.”