Vanguard Research

The risk of an escalation in trade conflicts remains elevated, and one major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from a pace of above 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end, if such an escalation were to occur, a contraction in world trade could slow the world economy even more.

As the global economy enters its tenth year of expansion following the global financial crisis, concerns are growing that a recession may be imminent, and although several factors will raise the risk of recession in 2019, a slowdown in growth - led by the United States and China - with periodic “growth scares” is the most likely outcome.