China Manufacturing Outlook 2013-2014

Summary of Findings and Forecasts
The Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) prepares a report analyzing the latest trends in selected manufacturing industries in China twice each year.

This report covers the actual data available through December 2012 and provides our latest forecasts, completed in March 2013.

The data mainly come from two sources: the China Economic Information Network affiliated with China’s State Information Center and the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Industrial forecasts are based on MAPI’s proprietary econometric model, while the outlooks for national GDP, retail sales, exports, and gross fixed asset investment are based on the consensus forecast.

The unit of measurement analyzed and forecast for manufacturing industries is the change in sales revenue, which includes the changes in total output, prices (inflation), and sales ratios.

The overall economic growth in China was slower than expected for much of 2012, but the momentum picked up noticeably in the fourth quarter, thanks to the stabilization in exports and the real estate sector, the growth-supportive monetary policy, and the public support for infrastructure investment.

For the whole year, however, real (inflationadjusted) GDP growth amounted to just 7.8 percent, the first time in more than a decade that growth failed to reach 8 percent.