2019-2050 Bay Area Seaport Forecast

The San Francisco Bay Area Seaport Plan (Seaport Plan), prepared by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), guides the development and use of the Bay Area’s seaport land.

The Seaport Plan focuses on the lands designated for “port priority use” in the San Francisco Bay Plan.

The general goal of the Seaport Plan is to ensure that the Bay Area retains sufficient seaport capacity to serve its foreseeable waterborne cargo needs.

The Seaport Plan covers five generic cargo types:

• Containerized cargo
• Roll-on/Roll-off (ro-ro) cargo (formerly classified as “neo-bulk”)
• Dry bulk cargo
• Break-bulk cargo (not currently handled)
• Non-petroleum liquid bulk cargo

The composition of SF Bay Area cargo flows has changed over time and will continue to shift in response to demand, trade conditions, and competitive alternatives.

Future volume through Bay Area seaports will be determined by economic activity in the Bay Area itself and in the broader Central and Northern California market.

Available near-term forecasts identified in this section share a common view that the pace of growth in California over the coming three to five years will be at a reduced pace, and that the West Coast, in general, will grow at a slower pace than the rest of the nation.

The limited number of long-term forecasts available tend to focus on population and depict steady growth over the long term, but at a slower rate than previously seen in California.