US Container Traffic Boosted by Back-to-School Rush

Imports from China to the U.S. saw a surge in August, in part thanks to a rush for back-to-school shopping. With a predicted uptick in demand this peak holiday season comes renewed optimism for an industry rebound.

In fact, the National Retail Federation has reported that this year's back-to-school shopping season was going to be a big one. Spending was expected to reach around $41 billion, nearly doubling pre-pandemic spending of $26 billion in 2019. Each household is also likely to have spent more, increasing from $697 to $890 per person for this year, without considering price increases.

Further, the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates predicts that the import cargo volume at significant U.S. container ports will hit 2 million TEUs during September and October.

“If you look at the U.S., the market looks relatively upbeat.”

— Christian Roeloffs, CEO, Container xChange

The Container Market Forecaster’s September report, published by online container logistics platform Container xChange, backs these observations, reporting China to U.S. trade routes saw an increase in Container Leasing Charge per Route. This indicates these routes are experiencing a high demand for shipping containers and may experience elevated leasing charges as suppliers adjust prices to match market conditions.

This optimism is also evidenced by the highest-ever Container Price Sentiment Index (xCPSI). The index has seen an increase in price sentiment starting in August 2023. The index conducts market surveys simultaneously, gathering the combined insights of industry experts on container price trends and quantifying them. This creates a useful measure that offers insights into what to expect in the container market in the near future.

For now, the surge in back-to-school shopping is causing a temporary increase in the demand for shipping containers. However, changes in the way Americans approach holiday shopping, influenced by economic factors, could impact consumer confidence.

“If you look at the U.S., the market looks relatively upbeat,” says Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange. “U.S. inflation is expected to remain relatively stable at 0.2% month-on-month, coupled with a strong labor market. Jobless claims are still at relatively low levels, and retail spending is slightly increasing. All those point toward a soft landing.”

There is also still some skepticism around whether a rebound is realistic in 2023.

“The slight, short-lived peak season on the trans-Pacific has shifted the container shipping industry’s hopes of a more significant U.S. import boost to late December and early January. But forwarders, shippers, and carrier executives aren’t sure a rebound will happen then either,” explains supply chain analyst Cathy Morrow Roberson in her newsletter, Freight Forward.

She adds that “it could actually be later in 2024, based on an analysis of U.S. federal data on inventories, by Jason Miller, supply chain analyst and associate professor of logistics at Michigan State University.”