Q1 intermodal volumes take a COVID-19-related hit, reports IANA

First quarter intermodal volumes saw continued declines, according to the Intermodal Quarterly report recently issued by the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).

Whereas 2019 intermodal volumes struggled out of the gate due to trade uncertainty, 2020 intermodal volumes felt the impact of the COVID-19, or coronavirus, pandemic.

Total first quarter volume—at 4,177,989 units—dropped 6.7% compared to the first quarter of 2019. Domestic containers—at 1,862,499—was the lone bright spot, rising 2.2%, while trailers saw a steep decline, down 22.3%, to 257,805. All domestic equipment—at 2,120,304—was off 1.8%. ISO, or international, containers, were down 11.3%, to 2,057,685.

While total volume was off nearly 7%, IANA observed that the first quarter of 2020 fared better than the fourth quarter of 2019, which was off 7.4% annually. And it added that the 2.2% gain in domestic containers fared better than the 2.7% decline for the fourth quarter of 2019, while ISO’s decline increased from the 9.1% fourth quarter 2019 decline.

“COVID-19 related issues impacted both domestic containers and international volume in Q1,” IANA noted. “Auto plant and other manufacturing shutdowns across North America, coupled with declining imports, made for a difficult start to the year.”

On the domestic side, IANA pointed to weak comparisons and an increase in conversions to containers as the drivers for domestic container growth for the quarter. And addressing the further ISO decline, it explained that the first quarter is typically a volatile time for imports, due to manufacturing shutdowns over the Chinese New Year. But this year that was exacerbated, due to the shutdowns being extended well past that because of COVID-19 issues.

As for trailers, IANA President and CEO Joni Casey said that trailers were expected to fall significantly prior to COVID-19 but are now expected to decline even more. 

“This is the smallest portion of intermodal moves and had been on a continual decline before the resurgence during 2017-2018,” she said. “Losses can be attributed to conversions to containers and looser conditions in truckload, LTL, parcel and temperature-controlled markets.”

Looking ahead, Casey explained that the COVID-19 impact on intermodal volume makes it challenging to forecast volumes.

“Additional declines are expected to continue and increase in Q2… while domestic volume could surge back during Q3,” she said.  “International volumes may continue to fall for the rest of 2020, reflecting the low demand for imports as well as the impact of tariffs, most of which remain in place.”

IANA added in the report that domestic container loads also
 are expected to fall between 15% and 20%, as demand is low, fuel prices have fallen drastically, and transloads of imports are expected to decline.

“Overall, total intermodal loadings are forecast
 to fall about 15% for all of 2020,” the report said. “Yet all those dealing with intermodal should know it is very difficult to confirm where this will go this year.”