Preliminary April North American Class 8 net orders are mixed

Preliminary April North American Class 8 net truck orders were mixed, according to data recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.  

FTR reported that preliminary April net orders, at 14,400 units, were off 25% compared to March and 12.5% annually. And it added that over the last 12 months, total Class 8 orders were at 267,700 units.

The firm also noted that as was the case in February and March, April orders were consistent with the recent demand trend and are in line with seasonal expectations. What’s more, FTR said that the levels seen over the first quarter of 2024 mostly quelled concerns of a rapid decline in demand, and the market is performing slightly above replacement-level orders. After maintaining an average level of around 25,000 units over the previous three months, orders have continued to slow at a seasonally typical rate, averaging 20,000 units in the last three months, it noted, while also observing that OEMs continue to fill build slots at a healthy rate. Although most OEMs saw declining orders, some saw small increases.

“Despite the month-over-month decline, the fact that orders were up significantly from the April 2023 level indicates that the market is still solid,” said Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, commercial vehicles, in a statement. “The persistent stagnation in the freight markets has not deterred fleets from being willing to order new equipment. Order levels were below the historical average but remain in line with seasonal trends, and we still expect a replacement level of output by the end of 2024.”

ACT Data: ACT reported that April Class 8 orders, art 15,600 units, were off 1,800 units compared to March, while posting a 30% annual gain, in what it called a very easy year-ago comparison. The firm added that with its seasonal factor being positive, April is expected to be at 16,000 units (and 200,000 on a seasonally-adjusted annual rate, or SAAR) and with the 12-month SAAR pegged at 290,000, ACT said that near-term demand is decelerating.

“Even in good years, Q2 typically delivers below-trend orders, while Q4 orders can trigger optimism at the bottom of the cycle,” shared Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “With the long bottom in freight volumes and rates continuing in the most recent data from DAT amid lingering market overcapacity, carrier profitability as illustrated by the publicly traded for-hire carriers’ financial performance was dismal in Q1. Entering the historically worst time of the year for orders, at the bottom of on-highway tractor buyers’ profitability cycle, is producing results in-line with expectations.”