POLA and POLB each report annual May volume declines and sequential gains

Familiar themes were echoed in May volume totals respectively issued this week by the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and the Port of Long Beach (POLB), with both ports again reporting annual declines but at a reduced rate.

POLA reported that total May volume came in at 779,140 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), representing a 19.5% annual decline. Even though volume was off nearly 20% annually, POLA pointed out that volumes are up 60% going back to February.

May POLA imports—at 409,150 TEU—were off 18.16% annually, and exports—at 101,741 TEU—fell 19.03% annually. And empty containers—at 268,249 TEU—were down 21.63%. Through the first five months of 2023, total POLA volume is off 27% annually, to 3,304,344 TEU and 15% off its five-year average for this period.

On a media conference call yesterday, POLA Executive Director Gene Seroka said that May represented the third consecutive month of volume gains and that POLA is moving toward its pre-pandemic averages, with May only about 6% off its five-year rolling average.  

“Looking ahead, if we can get labor deal done soon, and the economy doesn't falter, we're poised for a stronger back half of the year,” said Seroka.

And he added that the port’s early outlook for June indicates a range of 700,000 TEU-to-750,000 TEU, with several factors to consider, including dock operations, productivity, and staffing levels.

“We are seeing an uptick in ships bound for Los Angeles, which is an encouraging sign,” he said. “Our performance for the remainder of the year depends on these two key factors. First, the West Coast labor deal. We need this resolved as soon as possible. And, second, is the U.S. economy. Variables such as inflation, jobs, and consumer spending directly impact our results. In terms of the labor deal. A contract agreement will be the first step in bringing cargo back to Los Angeles.”

What’s more, with POLA volumes serving as a leading economic indicator, Seroka observed that the increase in Transpacific vessels serves as an indication that seasonal product flow is picking up, for things like back-to-school items, fall fashion, and year-end holiday merchandise now heading inbound.

POLB data: The Port of Long Beach reported that May volume fell 14.9% annually, coming in at 758,225 TEU. Despite the annual decline, the port said that this is the highest-volume month of the year, for the port, while increasing 15.6% over April, which was up 8.6% more than March. And the 14.9% annual decrease topped annual declines of 20.1% in April and 30% in March.

May imports—at 361,661 TEU—were off 17.2% annually, and exports—at 127,870—rose 8.1%, with empties down 20%, to 268,695 TEU.

On a year-to-date basis, total POLB volume is down 24.8% annually, to 3,135,600 TEU, with imports down 28%, to 1,472,626 TEU, and exports up 0.9%, to 600,586 TEU.

POLB CEO Mario Cordero said in a statement that the port is seeing signs that volume is on an upswing, with May marking the busiest month going back to August 2022, with the port optimistic for more positive signs in the coming months.

On a recent POLB-hosted conference call, Cordero explained that POLB estimated May volume would come in around 720,000 TEU, for a 15% annual decrease, with the actual data reported this week topping that projection.

“While not matching up to the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022, it is a positive trend and brings optimism that we will continue to see some growth for the remainder of this year,” he said on the call. “The pandemic years have caused some unusual fluctuations in cargo, with lows first, and then highs, and then back down. As we look to 2019 for some insight as to how we compare to a more typical year for the San Pedro Bay ports…2023 is looking very similar to 2019. The good news is we are stabilizing at the pre-pandemic levels of cargo volume and have come down double-digits percentage-wise but only from the pandemic surge levels of cargo.”

For the remainder of 2023, Cordero explained that, on average, POLB is expecting around 700,000 TEU per month, with those estimates highlighting how the port does not expect a typical Peak Season in 2023.

“Instead, it is just a plateau,” he said. “With our projections, we expect to be in a best-case scenario of 9.3 million TEU by the end of 2023, which would be about 2% up from 2022 and about 22% better than the 7.6 million TEU in 2019. We are back on a trend to more traditional cargo volume [flows].