The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

A house. A car. Lights at night and heat in the winter. A refrigerator to keep food fresh and a stove for cooking. A better education and a good job. Modern health care. Wireless communications. Technology and innovation.

The freedom to focus one’s daily activities on something more than mere subsistence.

These are among the many benefits of modern energy.

During the past century, growth in the availability and use of modern fuels - including electricity - has radically enhanced the lives of billions. But the progress enabled by modern energy has not reached everyone.

Some nations have prospered more than others, in part reflecting the pace of transitioning to modern energy coupled with modern technologies. As recently as 1990, developed economies (as defined by membership in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or OECD) consumed more than 50 percent of the world’s energy, despite having only 20 percent of its population.

Even today, some 80 years after Franklin Delano Roosevelt declared, “Electricity is no longer a luxury,” one out of every five people in the world still has no access to electricity. Even more lack modern cooking fuels.

However, as The Outlook shows, the coming decades are poised for a dramatic new chapter in the story of human progress. Economic growth in China, India and other non-OECD countries will enable some 3 billion people to rise into the ranks of the middle class - the largest collective increase in living standards in history.

This means new demand for food, for travel, for electricity, for housing, schools and hospitals, and for businesses meeting countless needs. It means better lives for billions.

Will non-OECD countries follow the same path the OECD did during the previous century?

In many ways, no. New technologies are reshaping not only our economies and our societies, but also how people use energy. While demand is rising, supplies are shifting to lower-carbon fuels. Efficiency is curbing growth in both energy demand and emissions.

The net effect of these changes is best seen in OECD nations, where economies are expanding while energy demand and emissions are already starting to fall.

The benefits of modern technology and energy are self-evident, especially to those who are only now beginning to gain access. To help enable billions to reach the middle class and living standards to rise, the question remains - as always - how to expand the benefits of modern technology and energy while protecting the environment.

Answers to that question will continue to be found through practical choices backed by human ingenuity. The good news is that practical options to meet people’s needs for reliable, affordable energy continue to expand.

So why energy?

Because energy is vital in our everyday lives.