Industries and Jobs at Risk if the Trans-Pacific Partnership Does Not Pass

The stakes involved in passage of TPP are high.

There are, conservatively, 35 goods-producing industries directly at risk of increased competitive pressure from China in the Japanese market if RCEP goes into effect, taking this one country pair as an example of what may happen to market access in the 16 countries currently engaged in RCEP negotiations.

These 35 industries account for just under 10 percent of total U.S. exports of goods to Japan.

These industries employ close to 5 million workers and maintain 162,000 business establishments in the United States.

There are a number of reasons why this does not capture all of the industries whose exports will come under pressure, and many are already under pressures from headwinds in the broader global economy.

Passing TPP can help ensure they have a fair shot if RCEP goes into effect.

Further, even if RCEP does not go into effect, U.S. businesses and consumers would forgo significant economic benefits if TPP does not pass. For example, 78 manufacturing, agricultural, and fishing industries export heavily to Japan, making them likely to benefit directly from increased market access under TPP through reduced tariff or non-tariff barriers.

We also show that these industries maintain a total of 360,000 business establishments and employ close to 12 million workers across all 50 states.

Finally, not passing TPP is likely to prevent new, market-based incentives to boost productivity growth and investment while at the same time lowering taxes faced by U.S. firms abroad and U.S. consumers at home.

Not passing TPP has the potential to set trade and economic activity in the Pacific Rim on a very different path that diverges from the U.S. vision of supporting worker rights, environmental protections, small businesses, a secure digital economy, and a level playing field for competition