Global Economic Outlook 2nd Quarter 2016

This year started with a bang rather than a whimper. Financial market volatility soared in the first two months of the year, driven by uncertainty around several key factors influencing the global economy.

As the first quarter comes to an end, the volatility appears to have abated somewhat.

Table of contents

Introduction
Dr. Ira Kalish
In the second-quarter edition of the Global Economic Outlook, our team of economists tries to explain the factors driving the uncertainty in the…

United States: Moderate growth to continue, but when will wages begin rising?
Dr. Patricia Buckley
US consumers are carrying the economy in the face of slowing business investment, falling exports, and rising imports. But the strength of the consumer is…

Eurozone: Recovery intact, institutional turmoil ahead
Dr. Alexander Börsch
Even though significant internal and external risks exist for the European Union, the main institutional and political risk is the possibility of a Brexit.…

United Kingdom: Brexit or not to Brexit?
Ian Stewart
High on the list of risks the United Kingdom faces is uncertainty over the outcome of the referendum on its EU membership. If voters choose to remain…

China: On the horns of a trilemma
Dr. Ira Kalish
Chinese authorities are striving to stave off a sharp decline in the renminbi’s value. Yet the government’s uncertain economic goals have put the…

Japan: Finding the right policy mix
Dr. Ira Kalish
Despite the monetary stimulus undertaken by the Bank of Japan, the economy is clearly not recovering in the manner that the government had hoped.

India: It’s going to be all about consumption
Dr. Rumki Majumdar
The Indian economy has maintained strong macroeconomic fundamentals in the face of the global economic slowdown, rising global uncertainty, and even…

Canada: Keynes arrives
Dr. Daniel Bachman
In Canada’s current low-inflation environment, the fiscal stimulus promised by the new government will likely be welcome. However, a potential housing…

Brazil: Yearning for the good times
Akrur Barua
Last year was perhaps one of the toughest for Brazil. The economy contracted sharply, even as political challenges hindered economic policy, amid concerns…

Russia: In austere times
Lester Gunnion
Russia’s dependence on oil is likely to intensify its economic troubles. Though oil prices have recovered slightly, they remain below the level required…

Impact of negative interest rates: Living in the unknown
Akrur Barua & Dr. Rumki Majumdar
Imagine a lender paying interest to a borrower instead of the other way round - which is precisely what’s happening in Europe and Japan. Negative…

Economic indices
GDP growth rates, inflation rates, major currencies versus the US dollar, yield curves, composite median GDP forecasts, composite median currency…