While volumes are down, August growth is in the cards, reports Port Tracker

While a month ago at this time, labor issues dominated logistics headlines, recent positive labor-related developments since then have helped shift things to a more optimistic tone, with United States-bound container import volumes pegged to come in at its highest level in almost a year, according to the Port Tracker report, which was issued this week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Port and package-delivery labor negotiations that threatened the supply chain at the beginning of the summer have been resolved and retailers are now focused on preparing for the all-important holiday season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “There are always supply challenges to be faced but holiday merchandise is flowing into the country, and we expect to see a smooth shipping season ahead of the winter holiday shopping season.”

Among the recent logistics-related labor developments cited in the report included: labor and management at West Coast ports reached a tentative contract agreement in June; a 13-day port strike in western Canada that affected some U.S. retailers last month ended with a tentative agreement and was ratified last week; and UPS and the Teamsters agreeing on a tentative contract that avoided a potential August 1 strike

For June, the most recent month for which data is available, Port Tracker reported that import volumes, for the ports covered in the report, came in at 1.83 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking a 5.2% gain decrease compared to May and an 18.7% annual decline. For the first half of 2023, total imports came in at 10.5 million TEU, down 22% compared to the same period a year ago.

Port Tracker issued projections for July and the subsequent months, including:

• July, at 1.91 million TEU, for an 12.7% annual decrease, which would bring the first half of 2023 to 10.6 million TEU, for a 22% annual decrease;
• August at 2.03 million TEU, for a 10.2% annual decrease, which would be the first month to top the 2 million TEU mark since October 2022;
• September at 1.97 million TEU, for a 3% annual decrease;
• October, at 1.99 million TEU, for a 1% annual decrease;
• November, at 1.92 million TEU, for an 8% annual increase, which would mark the first annual increase since June 2022; and
• December, at 1.92 million TEU, for a 10.7% annual increase

Should these projections come to fruition, total 2023 U.S.-bound container import volume would come in at 22.3 million TEU, which would represent a 12.8% annual decline compared to 2022’s 25.5 million TEU. The 2022 total was off 1.2% compared to the all-time record set in 2021, at 25.8 million TEU. These tallies came with the caveat that Canada’s Vancouver and Prince Rupert aren’t included in those totals and not all of their cargo comes to the United States.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that dollar figures for international trade show that imports remain in a year-over-year decline, with cargo volume matching that, as evidenced by negative annual data cited in the report.

“The discrepancy between rising growth in sales and declining cargo volumes is happening because retailers are working their way through inventory built up over the last 12-to-18 months,” he wrote. “Cargo growth should resume as inventories are depleted.”