Shipment and expenditure decreases trend down, notes Cass Freight Index

March freight shipments and expenditures readings largely saw sequential and annual declines, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Indexes accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.  

March’s shipment reading, at 1.113, fell 3.6% annually, down from February’s 4.5% decrease and January’s 7.6% decline. October, November, and December, respectively, saw annual declines, at 9.5%, 8.9%, and 7.2%, with March remaining below August 2022’s 1.278 reading, which marked the highest level for shipments since May 2018. Compared to February, March shipments fell 0.2%. On a two-year stacked change basis, shipments were off 7.5%.

Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, noted that the 0.2% sequential decline came amid for-hire demand remaining broadly consistent.

“The 3.6% [annual]decline was the smallest in a year, and although freight demand is broadly better than the for-hire market, it’s still hard to see amid ongoing private fleet growth,” he wrote in the report.

March expenditures, at 3.227, fell 18.5% annually, less steep than February’s 19.8% annual decline, and January’s 24.3% decline, as well as 23.3%, 25.6%, and 23.7% annual decreases, seen in October, November, and December, respectively. Expenditures were basically flat sequentially, up 0.1%. On a two-year stacked change basis, expenditures were off 28.3%.

“U.S. freight spending, as measured by the expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022,” stated Denoyer. “It is set to decline about another 14% in 1H’24, assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, and 9% for the full year.”