Panjiva reports U.S.-bound import growth, at a mildly reduced rate

United States-bound import and shipment levels saw continued gains, albeit at a reduced level, in July, according to recently-issued data by global trade intelligence firm Panjiva.

Total July U.S.-bound shipments—at 1,285,714—increased 21.1% annually and are up 26.6% on a year-to-date basis through July. And containerized freight imports—at 2,880,451 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—were up 14.3% annually and were up 28.8% year-to-date, at 19,914,399 TEU.   

On the product side, for July, Panjiva reported the following import numbers [compared to July 2019]:

• energy shipments increased 55.5%;
• healthcare shipments increased 20.6%;
• consumer discretionary sector shipments increased 12.7%;
• auto shipments increased 15.1%;
• home furnishing shipments increased 38.8%;
• home appliances increased 41.0%;
• electronic shipments decreased 13.4%; and
• apparel shipments decreased 13.0%

Panjiva explained that while the growth rate of consumer discretionary items slowed sequentially, the continued elevated expansion in demand likely reflects a degree of restocking, as well as meeting existing demand. And it also observed that that the decline in electronics shipments was likely related to the ongoing semiconductor shortage, and the decline in apparel shipments likely reflects the impact of widening pandemic-related disruptions on manufacturing capacity in southeast Asia, which it said could start to impact various sectors at the onset of the peak delivery season.

For origin locations, Panjiva said that imports from Asia, excluding China, were up 28.7% annually with Panjiva attributing that to lengthier pandemic shutdowns in Europe, when viewed in comparison to July 2019, imports from Asia, excluding China, were up 24.7%. China was off 3.1% and was down 7.4% compared to July 2019, which Panjiva said could be due to the relative decline in Chinese exports, as well as impacts from congestion in an around the ports of Yantian and Shanghai.

Panjiva Research Director Chris Rogers said in an interview that July’s numbers reflect slowing growth, with the caveat that it is not entirely clear if it was driven by congestion-related issues due to the Yantian port closure earlier this summer. And he also pointed to the decline in consumer electronics shipments, for items like laptop computers and televisions, among others.

“One thing is that last year we were in the middle of a spree of buying those types of items, with people realizing the pandemic was not going to be for a brief period,” he said. “Once people had bought those items, they were not likely to buy another one…but the semiconductor shortage has to bite at some point, and that very much was the case in July.”   

Looking ahead to future import patterns, Rogers observed that there are a lot of moving parts, with one being the unknown, in terms of how much people are willing to spend on the holidays, coupled with stimulus funding expired or close to it, as well as pending evictions, too.

“Some of it has to do with timing,” he said. “One reason that apparel dropped off quickly in July was likely due to a degree of front-loading by the apparel importers, with two big selling seasons in back to school and winter clothing. They don’t want to get back to school wrong in July and August, so if the inventory is not in by June, they are done. There is also the spreading outbreak of Covid in Southeast Asia. We have seen factory closures in Vietnam, and it would not be surprising to see more closures there and in Bangladesh, as well as concern in the electronics sector in Malaysia. As you go through Peak Season, those are the normal reliable patterns, but this is not a normal Peak Season, due to the recent port closures and the most recent one in Ningbo, as stuff leaving China now is going to be arriving into the U.S. in September and October.”

What’s more, Rogers noted that the market really has been at Peak Season levels all year already, adding that if consumer spending levels remain where they are—and supply chain shortages remain at the same levels—there is a decent chance that annual percentage growth numbers will come down but the absolute number, for traffic growth, could continue.”