June Cass Freight Index Report shows more mixed signals

The June edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was issued this week by Cass Information Systems, showed mixed signals for freight shipments and expenditures. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

June’s shipment reading—at 1.203—fell 2.3% annually, which was in line with April’s 2.7% annual decrease. Shipments were down 2.6% compared to May, and on a two-year stacked change, June shipments were up 23.9%, compared to the early days of the pandemic.

“The shipments component has now been down 4 of the 6 months this year on [an annual basis],” wrote report’s author Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “That includes January, which was impacted significantly by Omicron, but there has not been much follow through on the rebound. Inventory has shifted from a major tailwind for freight demand to more of a neutral factor currently, with potential to become a considerable headwind if goods demand continues to decline.”

June expenditures—at 4.665—rose 25.0% annually, slightly below May’s 27.5% annual gain, continuing to be paced by major inflation gains with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing yet another new high, rising 9.1% in June, topping May’s 8.6%, for the largest percentage increase since 1981.

Expenditures were up 95.5% on a two-year stacked basis and down 8.3% compared to May on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

“The average cost of a shipment rose 28% in June, but don’t be misled—more expensive truckload shipments replaced a good amount of LTL in the modal mix of our rates index,” explained Denoyer.