DAT October Truckload Volume Index posts mixed volume and rate readings

The October edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which was recently issued by DAT Freight & Analytics, posted mixed readings, in terms of volumes and linehaul rates.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, load-to-truck ratios, and rates, for the month of October, including:

• the van TVI was up 3.5% compared to September, at 263, and up 9.5% annually;
• the reefer TVI was up 4.3% compared to September, at 196 and up 9.0% annually;
• the flatbed TVI was down 3.2% compared to September, at 245, and up 0.5% annually;
• the DAT broker-to-carrier benchmark spot rate fell $0.02, from September to October to $2.09 per mile, for its fourth decrease in the last nine months, with the reefer rate down $0.06, to $2.46 per mile, and the flatbed rate down $0.03, to $2.48 per mile;
• linehaul rates, which DAT said subtract an amount equal to a fuel surcharge, saw October declines, for the fifth consecutive month, with the van line-haul rate down $0.01 from September, to $1.55 per mile, reefer down $0.05, to $1.87 per mile, and flatbed off $0.02, to $1.83 per mile;
• spot rates saw annual gains, with the benchmark line-haul van rate, at $1.77 per mile (down27% annually), reefer, at $2.08 per mile (down 26% annually), and the flatbed rate, at $2.07 per mile (down 28% annually);
• the national average van load-to-truck ratio, at 2.1, was down from September’s 2.8, with the reefer ratio, at 2.9, below September’s 3.4, and the flatbed ratio, at 6.3, below September’s 6.9;
• DAT’s benchmark rates for contracted freight were up, with the van rate down $0.02, to $2.57 per mile, the reefer rate down $0.04, to $2.97 per mile, and the flatbed rate down $0.07, to $3.13 per mile; and
• the gap between spot and contract van rates remained at $0.48 for the third straight month, a $0.15 decrease from October 2022, when the average spot rate was $2.43, and the contract rate was $3.06

“The van TVI was 2.3% higher compared to last October, the first year-over-year increase in a monthly TVI since September 2021,” said DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo in a statement. “It’s a positive sign for freight carriers and brokers, but the expectation is for a seasonal bump as opposed to a sustained recovery of volumes and pricing.”

In a recent interview with LM, Adamo said the TVI data, in recent months, is reflective of market conditions that have been intact for all of 2023, and it resembles 2019, in that the year kicked off at a bottoming of the market and remained there for the entire year.

“From a carriers’ perspective, things like fuel prices and low rates are squeezing them and they are not seeing the volume that they would need; it is kind of like the three legs of the stool,” he said. “And if you are a broker, this is kind of the scariest part of the entire freight cycle for brokers, because it has been bad for carriers for a while. Brokers on the other hand, as the market is falling, they actually see a little bit of a margin expansion once things have arrived to the bottom and stayed there, which is when their margins compress the most and is the shortest portion of the freight cycle. It is the most dire if you're a brokerage, especially a brokerage that's not making any money.”