DAT March Truckload Volume Index sees modest March gains

The intersection of seasonal trends and lower spot truckload rates in March was the main theme of the new edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which was recently issued by DAT Freight & Analytics.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of March, including:

• the van TVI, at 260, up 4% compared to February;
• the refrigerated TVI, at 200, up 2.6% compared to February;
• the flatbed TVI, at 242, increased 4.4% compared to February;
• the national average spot van rate, at $2.01 per mile, was off $0.06 compared to February and down $0.15 annually, falling for the third consecutive month;
• the national average refrigerated rate, at $2.35 per mile, dropped $0.08 compared to February and fell $0.15 annually, also down for the third consecutive month;
• the national average flatbed rate, at $2.50 per mile, inched up $0.01, falling $0.21 annually
• spot linehaul rates, which DAT said subtract an amount equal to a fuel surcharge, were mixed, with the line-haul van rate average, at $1.55 per mile, off $0.05 compared to February, the average refrigerated rate, at $1.85 per mile, for a $0.07-cent decline, and the average linehaul flatbed rate, at $1.95, for a $0.02-cent increase;
• contracted truckload rates, for van and refrigerated freight, saw declines, with the DAT iQ benchmark contract van and reefer rates each off $0.03, to $2.48 and $2.86 per mile, respectively, with the flatbed rate up $0.04, to $3.18; and
• the margin between spot and contract van rates was again up in March, after rising for the first time in 12 months in February, with van freight at $0.47, refrigerated at $0.51, and flatbeds at $0.68, with DAT noting that a lower spread typically indicates more pricing power for motor carriers

“The decline in van and reefer spot rates coincided with the demand for truckload services picking up marginally toward the end of the month,” said Ken Adamo, Chief of Analytics, DAT Freight & Analytics, in a statement. “There were no big swings or signs that spot-market volumes or capacity will change beyond what we expect from produce, construction materials, and summer retail goods starting to move.”

In an interview with LM, Adamo noted that the overall story of March centered around similar patterns to start the year, in terms of being a continuation of February, after a an atypically strong January, which he described as a head-fake, as spot freight volumes rose to all-time highs, driven by what DAT described as a weather-related bump in demand for truckload capacity.

“Looking at March, I don’t see anything that stands out as exceptional,” he said. “Underperformance, the calendar [with two more shipping days in March], and general seasonality were the things noticed. If you look at March at the end of the quarter, typically, we see some strength heading into the tail end over the last couple of weeks. Lackluster is how I would describe March.”

As for April’s performance on a month-to-date basis, Adamo viewed it as a continuation of February, in terms of the current trough-like market conditions.

Using 2019 as a reference point, he explained that market conditions were sliding in 2019, with things not yet positive on an annual basis, which was the expectation.

“If you look at where Roadcheck and some other blips occurred last year, we have about 20 or so days before where 2023 saw its summer rise,” he said. “That should happen in the early-to-mid-part of May, if we are going to follow that trend. If not, we are going to start historically lagging 2023.”