Trucking Outlook NITL Spring Policy Meetings

Key assumptions

• Economy continues to grow at current (anemic) pace despite sequester/etc. – no “spring swoon”.
• Federal government does no further damage (default, debt limit)
• No externalities (i.e. North Korea, Iran, Euro Zone meltdown, and so on)
• No court delay to HOS revision

Short-term implications
At a minimum:
– Tightening capacity, increasing rates
– Shift in balance of power between shipper and carrier
– Greater focus on driver productivity at shipper facilities

If economy is better than expected:
– True capacity shortage – freight doesn’t get moved
– Truck size & weight in play

Longer-term implications

• The end of the “driver shortage”?
• Fundamental change in driver pay/carrier costs
• Big changes at the loading dock
• Increased inventory levels
• Higher costs for surge capacity
• True collaboration between shippers and carriers