Using Data to Understand the Logistics Commercial Truck Driver Shortage Crisis for 2021 and Beyond

The Trucking Shortage

Is the US logistics industry facing a dire shortage of commercial truck drivers?

Truckload brokerage experts and logistics journalists have been going back and forth on the question for years.

The American Trucking Association reports that they have suffered a shortage of truck drivers for the past 15 years.

In 2018, NPR took up the issue (as it has several times over the last decade), warning that a pressing need for more commercial truck drivers is causing delays in freight shipping and driving up the price of consumer goods.

But others have remained skeptical. In 2019, Barron’s argued that the supposed trucking shortage was largely overblown, citing a relatively stable producer price index as evidence.

The BLS also weighed in, finding high rates of occupational attachment among truck drivers that haul freight and suggesting that, over time, the labor market would respond to price signals in a roughly normal and predictable way.

It’s unsurprising that truckload shipping is the object of so much scrutiny.

Drivers are indispensable to our lifestyle. They keep food, clothes, medicine, books, gadgets, and almost anything else you can name, on our shelves.

Between 2019 and 2020 alone, there were over 14 million job postings for truck drivers.

In other words, they are in extremely high demand, and failure to meet this demand over the long term will have widespread consequences.

This may be a uniquely important moment for investigating and defining the potential trucking shortage.

The effects of the unprecedented pandemic and accompanying response have been massive.

Online shopping and the consequent demand for delivery have skyrocketed, while service industry jobs have vanished. Intuition suggests that trucking jobs would grow enormously under these conditions - but to understand what has actually happened, we need to bring data to bear.

In the study “Drivers Wanted: Using Data to Understand the Commercial Truck Driver Shortage” we combine labor market data and on-the-ground insights of logistics industry leaders (see Truck Driver Shortage Contents below).

As Monica Byers, CEO of Sugar Creek Transportation, stated:

“The truckload driver shortage is the biggest challenge I have and it’s much harder to get company drivers than to hire owner-operators.”

We hope to paint a nuanced picture of the extent and shape of the commercial trucking shortage, the complications introduced by the unique circumstances of the past year, and the possible steps toward solutions that benefit truckers and businesses alike.

Drivers Wanted: Using Data to Understand the Commercial Truck Driver Shortage Contents

Download Drivers Wanted: Using Data to Understand the Commercial Truck Driver Shortage

The trucking shortage
Anyone want to drive?
Warehousing: the competition
Trucking vs. the competition: what makes it hard to hire commercial drivers?
The COVID-19 impact on truckers and logistics
The road forward
Conclusion

The Size of the Complex Prize

Given how seamlessly American logistics function from a consumer standpoint, it can be difficult to fully grasp the size, scale, complexity, and importance of any logistics network and workforce.

We press a button and wait for a package or swing by the grocery store or pharmacy in total confidence that we’ll find what we need on the shelves.

But behind that ease and confidence lies an army of workers. There are 6.4 million in the broad transportation and warehousing industry, which amounts to roughly three percent of the total U.S. labor force. As an industry, transportation, and warehousing is the 11th largest sector in the labor market, just behind finance and insurance (6.7M employed in 2020) and just ahead of wholesale trade (6M employed in 2020).

Watch the Q2 Truckload Market Forecast: Diving into the Driver Shortage Webinar On-Demand

And that labor market is not only enormous but growing. Transportation and warehousing grew by 3.2% since 2019, likely in response to the growth and market share consolidation of businesses like Amazon and Walmart.

Obviously, transportation and warehousing include a broader set of logistics operations than trucking alone. But when we narrow our focus accordingly, we still find growth. Heavy tractor-trailer drivers grew by 2.1%, for a total of 1.9 million jobs. In fact, heavy tractor-trailer driving makes up nearly 30% of the jobs in transportation and warehousing.

Aside from overall growth and contraction, the crucial question here is, as we emerge from 2020, does the labor market have a real or pronounced shortage of commercial truck drivers?

Find the answers by downloading the study: Drivers Wanted: Using Data to Understand the Commercial Truck Driver Shortage Contents

Related Resource

Drivers Wanted: Using Data to Understand the Commercial Truck Driver Shortage
This original research study examines the extent and shape of the commercial trucking shortage, the complications from the pandemic, and the possible steps toward solutions that benefit truckers and businesses alike. Download Now!

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