Retail Sales: Retail sales are growing at unprecedented rates.
Earlier this month, The National Retail Federation (NRF) upwardly revised its retail sales forecast to grow between 10.5% and 13.5% in 2021.
Video (to the right): NRF’s Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz announces NRF’s revised sales forecast for 2021 during its inaugural State of Retail and the Consumer event. NRF now forecasts that 2021 retail sales are estimated to grow between 10.5 percent and 13.5 percent to more than $4.44 trillion this year as the economy accelerates its pace of recovery.
This is the highest growth rate we have ever forecast.
Business Applications: New business applications accelerated dramatically since the start of the pandemic and have remained at elevated levels – particularly in the retail sector.
Store Count: Not only are small online businesses growing but the number of U.S. stores reached the highest level on record in Q4 2020. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW survey)
Retail Corporate Bankruptcies: Through mid-May 2021, retail bankruptcies stood at 12, running at half the levels of 2020, and below the five-year average of 16 per year. (Source: S&P Global)
US ecommerce forecast has been revised upward, with 18% growth expected in 2021 reported by eMarketer.
Following a strong Q1 fueled by government stimulus, we have increased our forecast for US retail ecommerce sales in 2021. US ecommerce sales are expected to grow 17.9% this year (higher than the 13.7% predicted in January 2021) to reach $933.30 billion. That pushes ecommerce’s share of total US retail sales to 15.3%, up from 14.0% last year. Ecommerce is now on track to surpass 20% of total retail by 2024.
Total retail sales this year will increase by 7.9% to $6.083 trillion, surpassing $6 trillion for the first time. The two fastest-growing categories are apparel and accessories (up 28.7%) and home furnishings (up 11.4%). And because online sales account for about one-third of both categories’ total sales, those sectors will help drive overall ecommerce growth as well.
Related Retail Resources
Deloitte’s 2021 Retail Industry Outlook
Deloitte interviewed 50 retail executives and 15 of their retail subject-matter specialists to address what the retail world may look like with COVID-19 in the rearview mirror - and what retailers may expect as they plan for 2021 and beyond. Download Now!
Keeping Up with the Retail Consumer
6 Supply Chain Disciplines Retailers Must Master - Developed by Adrian Gonzalez, Founder and President of Adelante SCM and LEGACY Supply Chain Services, with a foreword from Rick Blasgen, President and CEO, CSCMP. Download Now!
Retail Distribution Centre Automation: Using Technology to Stay in the Game
In this paper, you will learn about the changing retail environment and how automation options can be adopted as a means of building the velocity, accuracy, and efficiency it takes to thrive on the retail battlefield. Download Now!
Warehouse Software Systems: The Brains Behind the Operation
In this paper, we look at the absolute fundamental importance of the software systems that underpin distribution center operations: warehouse management systems, warehouse execution systems, and warehouse control systems. Download Now!
Emerging Digital Technologies for the Retail Supply Chain: Strategic Advantage or Big Question Mark?
This paper outlines three rapidly evolving technologies that have demonstrated benefits for supply chain operations; 5G communications, digital twins, and blockchain, and is designed to help you make the critical decisions that will drive your organization forward and stay ahead of the retail game. Download Now!
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