The Role of Behavioral Economics in Optimizing Judgmental Forecasting
Decades of research prove that effectively integrating business intelligence and judgment into statistical forecasts can be highly effective. In times of exceptional uncertainty—like what most organizations are experiencing right now—it’s actually vital.
Sales & Operations Planning
Too many organizations spend time and effort looking for a silver bullet that will magically “fix” their forecasting, but not enough of them recognize how many human fingerprints impact the demand planning process.
According to Jonathon Karelse, a global leader in forecasting, predictive analytics and S&OP, even fewer companies realize the opportunity for improvement when human inputs are properly integrated.
Karelse says he picked this presentation topic because “everyone can benefit from improving human judgment in planning, especially when a pandemic has completely altered the demand profiles of many companies.” As a result, many of these organizations rely on traditional statistical models that don’t work well when history is less of a predictor of future performance.
At this NextGen Supply Chain Conference presentation, attendees will learn about the most appropriate places to integrate judgment while minimizing bias; the most prevalent unconscious biases and group dynamics; and the most effective ways to mitigate the effects of biases and heuristics.
Karelse explains:
“To navigate periods of variability or uncertainty requires human judgment, and to make the best use of judgmental inputs requires bias mitigation strategies. Without at least a cursory understanding of behavioral economics, the process of integrating judgment is extremely risky; we open ourselves and our plans up to unconscious biases.”
Jonathan will be presenting Wednesday, October 19th.
NextGen Supply Chain Conference - October 17-19, 2022
Join us at the Chicago Athletic Association for the premier educational event that answers the question “What’s next in supply chain management?” for senior-level SCM professionals. Only NGSC is exclusively dedicated to preparing executives for the coming technologies and processes that will have the most transformative effects on their supply chains.
This year's NextGen Supply Chain Conference will focus on the emerging supply chain technologies that are powering tomorrow’s supply chains, and enabling the digital transformation of supply chain processes.
Special offer for Supply Chain 247 readers, 50% off registration. Use code NG50 when you register
