The DHL Global Trade Barometer index continues to forecast solid growth for global trade

Despite the sabre rattling at top diplomatic levels regarding new trade policies and tariffs, The DHL Global Trade Barometer index continues to forecast a solid growth for global trade as the index hits 67, representing a slight increase (+1) compared to the previous release in March. 

According to spokesmen, the positive global prospects are fueled by the increasingly bright outlooks for trade in South Korea, China and the U.S. compared to March. 

However, a slowdown of trade growth in the UK, Japan and India  “dampens” the global outlook. Germany is the only constituent country with an unchanged outlook compared to the previous quarter.  

Regarding transport modes, the global air trade outlook remains unchanged, at a solid level of 70

Air trade is seeing some headwinds appearing in the U.S. and the UK, as the index is down by -4 and -6 points, respectively, compared to March. 

Japan and India see minor decreases by -2 and -1 points, respectively. An accelerated growth outlook for South Korean (+6) and German (+3) air trade compensates for those setbacks, as well as a mild improvement in China (+1).

Meanwhile, the outlook for global ocean trade slightly improved, increasing by +1 point to 64 compared to the previous quarter. This goes back to a dynamic development in the US (+4), China (+3) and South Korea (+3), offsetting the reduced growth outlook for ocean trade in India (-6), UK (-3), Japan (-3) and Germany (-1).

Machinery Parts & Components and Industrial Raw Materials had the highest impact on the improved growth forecast. Trade in High Tech and Consumer Personal and Household Goods is predicted to grow strongly as well. In contrast, there is a negative growth prediction for Basic Raw Materials. 

As reported in LM, the “DHL Global Trade Barometer,” was introduced last January. 

Tim Scharwath, a member of the management board at DHL Global Forwarding, told LM in an interview that logistics managers can use the barometer as an index with consolidated data from China, India, Japan, South Korea, Germany, United Kingdom and United States.

“These countries represent a well-balanced mixture of industrial and emerging countries as much as import and export orientation,” said Scharwath. “Together, they display 50% of the global trade volume, and therefore can be used to indicate the development of the global trade.”

Nevertheless, the global index or the specific country results can’t allow a derivation for a different particular country or region, such as the BRICS. “In general, the latest update of the Global Trade Barometer stated an overall positive development for the Chinese economy, which is mainly driven by a strong air trade,” said Scharwath. “Furthermore, the results of the indicator don’t show China losing share to other Asian nations.”