Retail sales finish 2021 on solid footing, reports Commerce and NRF

United States retail sales ended 2021 with a sequential decline and an annual gain, while holiday season retail sales, for the months of November and December, were very strong, according to data respectively issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that December retail sales—at $626.8 billion—were off 1.9% compared to November, while seeing a 16.9% annual increase. And it noted that total retail sales, for all of 2021, saw a 19.3% annual gain, and retail sales, from October through December, rose 17.1% annually.

Retail trade sales headed up 2.1% over November and 14.4% annually, observed Commerce, with gasoline stations seeing a 41% annual gain and food services and drinking places up 41.3%.

Holiday retail sales: The NRF reported that 2021 holiday retail sales—at $886.7 billion—saw a 14.1% annual increase, topping its forecast of up to 11.5% annual growth. This level of growth is significant, especially when taking into account that over the previous five years, average holiday sales growth came in at 4.4%.

What’s more, NRF reported that holiday season online spending, for the 2021 holiday season, was in line with NRF’s forecast—an increase of 11%-to-15%, to between $218.3 billion and $226.2 billion.

“Retail sales displayed solid momentum throughout the holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. “Worries about inflation and COVID-19 put pressure on consumer attitudes but did not dampen spending, and sales were remarkably strong. Even though many consumers began shopping in October, this was the strongest November and December we’ve ever seen. Despite supply chain challenges, retailers kept their shelves stocked and consumers were able to fill their carts both in-store and online. Holiday spending during 2021 reflected continued consumer demand that is driving the economy and should continue in 2022. Nonetheless, we should be prepared for challenges in the coming months due to the substantial uncertainty brought by the pandemic.”

For the month of December, NRF reported that retail sales, which it defines as excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, saw a 1.9% seasonally-adjusted decline, from November to December, while seeing a 16.9% annual gain, following a 0.2% seasonally-adjusted gain, from October to November, and an 18.2% annual gain in November. NRF also pointed out that monthly retail sales results have seen annual gains every month going back to June 2020.

Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData, wrote in a research note that despite last minute panics about supply chains, covid variants and staffing issues, December turned out to be another strong month for retail.

“It is true that growth slowed compared to November, which was boosted by many consumers shopping earlier than usual, but the easing was not particularly pronounced and left December looking perfectly respectable against the lineup of other months in 2021,” he noted. “Indeed, growth remained well above that posted in the summer and fall months.”