November truck tonnage is mixed, reports ATA

November truck tonnage volume was mixed, according to data issued today by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA’s advanced seasonally-adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, at 118.9, was up 0.4% compared to October’s 118.4. And October’s 6.3% gain over September was downwardly revised by the ATA to a 5% gain.

On an annual basis, SA tonnage was up 7.6% in November, which was down from the 8.1% annual spread recorded in October. On a year-to-date basis through November, SA tonnage is up 7.2% annually.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, came in at 119 in November (2015=100), marking a 3.1% decline compared to October’s 122.8.

“The fact that tonnage rose in November after a strong October is impressive. It was likely due to some continued pull forward of shipments from China due to the threat of higher tariffs, as well as solid retail sales last month,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “With continued strength in November, tonnage growth is on pace to be the best year since 1998.”

Speaking on a recent conference call hosted by investment firm Stifel earlier this year, Costello said that there are a few drivers of the current solid freight activity, including consumer spending, construction activity, manufacturing activity, and inventory levels throughout the supply chain.

“[L]ooking at the over-the-road TL and LTL markets, I like to look at factory output,” he said. “2018 is shaping up to be the highest level of production since 2007, and 2019 should be the highest on record. If we look at year-over-year growth rates, we're going to go essentially no growth in the sector from 2015 and 2016 to 2.8% growth this year and over 3% growth next year.”