The National Impact of a West Coast Port Stoppage

Executive Summary
Trade operations at all seaports along the U.S. West Coast face a summer of uncertainty. On June 30, the current labor contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and its employer group, the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), will expire.

A protracted dispute between the negotiating parties could lead to reduced or shuttered terminal operations for an extended period. If such disruptions occur, the economic impact would be significant and widespread according to a new economic analysis of West Coast ports commissioned by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the National Retail Federation (NRF). The last major port disruption due to a contract negotiation was the 2002 10-day West Coast ports lockout, which cost the U.S. economy several billion dollars and took months to recover.

West Coast ports are a critical artery of the nation’s transportation infrastructure and essential for the seamless flow of imports and exports - cargo moving through West Coast ports represents an economic value of 12.5 percent of U.S. GDP.

The NAM and NRF asked economists from Inforum to quantify the macroeconomic consequences of a West Coast ports closure, considering various durations of time. The Inforum analysis uses the LIFT economic model and breaks down the impact on U.S. employment, output and income if port operations cease for 5, 10 or 20 days at 30 West Coast ports along the continental United States (Alaska and Hawaii not included).