Global Truck Study 2016: The Truck Industry in Transition

Commercial vehicle manufacturers must supplement their hardware business with digital services.

The traditional idea that economic growth means increased sales of trucks is breaking down.

Commercial vehicle manufacturers are expected to sell barely any heavier (HCVs) and medium commercial (MCVs) vehicles in 2026 than they do today.

In short, sales are likely to stagnate over the next ten years.

Although slightly higher volumes are still anticipated in the BRIC countries, this growth will be balanced against declining truck sales in the Triad.

Telematics and digitalization will lead to gains in efficiency and declining demand in these highly developed markets.

This study predicts a compound annual growth rate of only 0.6% (CAGR1) for the global heavy and medium commercial vehicle markets until 2026.

The weak growth prospects for the truck market are only partially offset by subdued expectations for global economic growth (OECD +3.3% per year until 2026).

Particularly in the highly developed commercial markets of the Triad2, telematics and digitalization in transport will enable further increases in efficiency, meaning that fewer commercial vehicles will be required to transport the same or even a greater number of goods.

Thus, the Triad markets are expected to shrink slightly at an annual rate of -0.9% from 2016 to 2021. After that, the decline is expected to accelerate to -1.4% per year until 2026.

Despite all the current difficulties in the BRIC countries, the truck markets in these regions are likely to offer many opportunities and a CAGR of+1.6% until 2026.

Their share in the global market will increase from 47% in 2016 to 52% in 2026. However, digitalization will also reduce growth in the long term.

Manufacturers must also prepare them- selves for consolidation within the logistics sector, which will be dominated by an ever-smaller number of customers with ever-greater purchasing power.

Alternative drive systems will also play an important role in the future. New supply concepts for urban areas will also lead to many medium commercial vehicles being replaced by light commercial vehicles.

The study closely examines four global trends that will have a lasting effect on the commercial vehicle market.

These trends will fundamentally transform global truck markets. Established commercial vehicle manufacturers will have the opportunity to actively shape this process, but to do so, they must successfully occupy new areas of business and go beyond being simply manufacturers of products to become hardware manufacturers with a wide range of digital services.