Deloitte’s 2015 Holiday Survey

Deloitte’s annual holiday forecast suggests holiday sales will increase 3.5-4 percent, with digitally influenced sales affecting 64 percent, or $434 billion, of in-store retail sales.

Similarly, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is expecting a 3.7 percent increase in holiday sales, representing $630.5 billion in sales.

NRF is also predicting online sales growth between 6 and 8 percent, to as much as $105 billion.

Deloitte economists are attributing the uptick in sales to an improving labor market, increasing home values, and lower gas prices - even as, for many, personal income growth remains flat.

However, the consumers who partook in this year’s 30th annual Deloitte holiday survey express considerably more expansive plans than the above two forecasts would suggest.

On average, these consumers anticipate spending 11 percent more on holiday items, with 75 percent of participants intending to spend more than or the same as last year (up from 69 percent in 2014) - the highest percentage increase we have seen since 2000.

Actions speak louder than words, and only time will tell how close any of these predictions are to actual holiday shopping consumer trends and behavior.

In the meantime, we are pleased to share this year’s survey findings before the season is in full swing, in an effort to provide retailers with guidance on how to navigate the new retail landscape and potentially move the needle in the favor of customers’ enthusiasm.

View from the consumer lens: Current state and spending plans

• My situation is fairly stable, and the economy isn’t too shabby
• More plan to spend more, less plan to spend less
• Enjoying the fruits of my labor: This holiday season will be about me and my family
• Don’t expect to find any surprises under the tree . . . with the possible exception of handmade or craft items
• No, we won’t be upset if you give us cash or gift cards - really!
• Subscription services: The gift that keeps on giving
• Disrupting the spending cart: It really is all about me

Venue preference: Where, why, and how

• Round up the usual suspects: Internet and department stores
• Is holiday season the saving grace for malls and big box retailers?
• The unusual suspects: Low- and no-infrastructure retailers and events
• Getting them in the door: Price still matters, but merchandising and referrals also do the trick
• Products trump associates as a reason to visit a physical store
• Browse here, shop there: Omnichannel shopping behaviors
• Home-court advantage: Community support and unique products drive local shopping

In-store experience: Desired attributes, perceptions, and persuasion likelihood

• Final moments matter more than first impressions when it comes to store associate interaction
• In-store technology: The basics, please - price clarity and self-checkout
• Over half of our mind is made up when we enter the store, but retailers can influence the other 43 percent

Shopping inhibitors

• Don’t make me wait, coming or going
• Data concerns remain but don’t alter behavior
• Online shopping still perceived as more risky; retailer transparency helps
• Online venue familiarity also lowers perceived risk
• Stock-outs more detrimental for online versus physical retail experiences

The connected consumer

• The Internet is a powerful influence
• Smartphones are for directions; both devices are for browsing, reviews, and price checking
• Social media provides inspiration, discounts, and reviews

Holiday shopping influences, expectations, and timing

• Sales and coupons still matter, but don’t forget the bookend moments: shipping and returns
• Heads up: Nearly three-fourths of shoppers plan to ship for free!
• Free shipping trumps fast shipping, and “fast” means two days or less
• Consumers still have aggressive holiday shipping expectations
• The early bird (shopper) is a dying breed
• Same time this year: Expect shopper traffic and timing to echo last year’s behavior
• Consumers are divided on when the best deals are likely to occur
• Shopping-day rituals are on decrease and hold less significance
• Guarding their influences: Trusting other customers over retailer recommendations

Anticipating, navigating, and capitalizing on disruption

• Pearls of wisdom: Creating moments that matter