November ATA truck tonnage sees gains, continuing uneven growth pattern

Uneven truck tonnage patterns continued in 2016, according to data issued this week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in November at 142.4 (2000=100) was up 8.2 percent compared to October, following a 0.3 percent October dip from September.

The SA was within close range to the all-time high of 144 in February and was up 5.7 percent annually, marking its first annual gain going back to August, well ahead of October’s 0.9 percent annual decline. On a year-to-date basis, the SA is up 2.8 percent through the first 11 months of 2016.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, came in at 135.9 in November, 1.7 percent below October. The NSA was up 5 percent compared to November 2016.

As defined by the ATA, the NSA index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“2016 has been an interesting year for truck tonnage, with monthly gains and decreases as large as I can remember, which suggests seasonality is different this year,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “November’s substantial increase continued with the seesaw pattern that has persisted for much of the year. While I think the November gain overstates the strength in the freight market, I do believe we are seeing some improvement that will continue into 2017. Retail sales are good, the housing market is solid, and the inventory overhang throughout the supply chain is coming down, all of which will help support truck freight volumes in 2017.”

This sentiment has been echoed by many freight transportation stakeholders whom maintain better things are in store for 2017, but that comes with the caveat of sustained volume and GDP growth, buoyed, to a large degree, by strong consumer spending levels.